Toronto Raptors head into 2025-26 in a curious – and somewhat dishevelled – position: there is talent across the roster, there is an experienced core that has been reconstituted over the past 18 months, and there are numerous questions about depth, health, and fitness. In other words, they are not contenders to win the East, but they are not out of it either; they are middle-of-the-pack contenders who might do well should the pieces fall into place, and they remain healthy.
How the roster looks
The Raptors’ projected starting lineup is a two-way attack when at full strength: Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram (who joined the team via a trade deadline last season), Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl provide Toronto with size, shot creation, and defensive versatility. There is potential there, but Ingram has seldom shared significant minutes with Barnes, and some of their best options are affected by health issues: some of the most important pieces are not in good health.
The elephants in the room are depth and fitness. Toronto boasts good rotation players and a top-10 pick, which can be useful over the long term, but skills overlap (wings need the ball to shine, ball-handlers in the secondary), and means minutes wars and offensive traffic jams are actual threats. A number of analytics and offseason trackers sounded the alarm that the Raptors needed to consolidate their talent or add an obvious second star so they could transition out of play-in hopeful to an actual top-six challenger. Punters will be looking at different aspects for the Raptors, but several Wincomparator.com bookmakers will have one thing in common: The Raptors are far from favourites at this point.
Where the East is, and where Toronto belongs
Following an active offseason throughout the conference, the Eastern landscape is again top-heavy. The heavily projected conference favorites include teams such as Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and New York due to the proven superstars, sustainability, and deeper reserves. Those clubs are put at the top of the East by league observers, with a second tier of teams (Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta) positioning themselves, and a mass of would-be teams below them. The majority of national outlets in that pecking order would place the Raptors in the chasing pack and not the elite.
Why Toronto makes a good challenger (but not a seed)
Upside: the ceiling of the Raptors is real in case Barnes + Ingram have established a two-man creative engine, and Poeltl stands in the paint both as rim defender and pick-and-roll partner. Such a mix would put Toronto into the playoff discussion in a competitive East and would enable them to beat teams that have difficulties with size or changeability. Analytics and team trackers also focus on the talent and potential rotations that the roster has to drive optimism.
Limits: continuity and health. Toronto has not had its five best players on the court regularly, and two of its crunch-time playmakers, who are capable of regularly delivering an opportunity to others, are out. The conference was also stronger in some spots during the offseason, whereby the Raptors will have little room to error since they will probably need both the improvements and the favorable matchups to advance out of the middle of the East.
Practical ranking
Realistic preseason ranking: 7th-11th in Eastern Conference – a middle range of the swing that hinges upon health, chemistry, and whether or not the Raptors can transform defensive versatility into reliable offense. That places Toronto in the fringe playoff / play-in category: they may be dangerous in a restricted series in case they can match up, but they are unlikely to trouble the elite in the conference without an additional star or a definite identity. This aligns with some of the season predictions and power surveys in the offseason.
What would make the difference?
Three things can swing the needle:
- Good health in the core
- Bright forward positions that minimize ball duplication and increase productivity.
- An internal or trade development that provides a more-than-average secondary scorer/playmaker.
With two of those boxes being checked in Toronto, it is possible that it leaps into the top six; with none, expect a roller-coaster season with play-in games as the probable destination.
Bottom line
The Raptors are no favorite of a conference, but a worthy contender: good enough to beat a better team on any single night, yet lacking that consistency and matchup advantage that characterizes the best of the East. Toronto is a team to follow for both fans and bettors: a team with promise, but with a tendency to miss the mark, and one that might make the 2025-26 season more captivating than many anticipate.