The NHL is heating up as the Toronto Maple Leafs are pitted against the Pittsburgh Penguins on October 12, 2024, starting at 7:00 PM EDT in Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. The game will be the first of three meetings between these two teams in the 2024-25 season, providing great action for fans and analysts alike.
Given the disparities in strength and recent performances of these two teams, the bet on this matchup can be expected to be especially interesting. Arguably, the Maple Leafs should be pegged as favourites with an impressive 46-26-10 record from last season, while their opponents ranked much further behind with a 38-32-12 record. Still, with the intrinsically unpredictable nature of surprises that do manifest in the NHL, this becomes an intriguing proposition for those interested in sports betting.
Team Performance Analysis
The Maple Leafs come into this game with a significant statistical advantage in most key areas. The Toronto power play sits at 23.9% (7th in the league), while the Penguins rank 30th at 15.3%. That large disparity in special teams could make the difference in what is a close hockey game.
On the defensive side of things, Pittsburgh has the better prowess on the penalty kill at 80.7% (10th) compared to Toronto’s 76.9% (23rd), but overall statistics are considerably better on offense, averaging 3.63 goals per game, ranking second in the league compared to Pittsburgh’s 3.09-18th.
Key Players to Watch
Auston Matthews is the undisputed offensive monster of the Leafs, compiling 107 points – 69 goals and 38 assists- in the last season. His goal-scoring ability projects him as one of the favorites for any-time scorer bets.
The Penguins were led by Sidney Crosby’s 94 points – 42 goals, 52 assists – last season. Not as much a goal-scorer as Matthews, but consistent and, at times, brilliant performances, along with his great playmaking, make Crosby an important player to watch.
Goaltending Battle
The goaltending matchup could really affect how the game plays out and affects the betting lines. Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (16-7-2, 2.03 GAA, .925 SV%) has been in great form or Joseph Woll could get the call, and last season he went 12-11-1 with a 2.94 goals-against average and .907 save percentage in 25 games. On the other hand, Pittsburgh uses Tristan Jarry (19-25-5, 2.91 GAA, .903 SV%) and Alex Nedeljkovic (18-7-7, 2.97 GAA, .902 SV%), who have shown far less consistency and might give over/under bettors some pause for concern.
| Category | Toronto Maple Leafs | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Last Season Record | 46-26-10 | 38-32-12 |
| Power Play | 23.9% (7th in league) | 15.3% (30th in league) |
| Penalty Kill | 76.9% (23rd in league) | 80.7% (10th in league) |
| Goals Per Game | 3.63 (2nd in league) | 3.09 (18th in league) |
| Faceoff Win Rate | 53.5% (4th in league) | 54.6% (1st in league) |
| Key Player | Auston Matthews (107 points) | Sidney Crosby (94 points) |
| Goalie Stats | Anthony Stolarz (16-7-2, 2.03 GAA, .925 SV%) | Tristan Jarry (19-25-5, 2.91 GAA, .903 SV%) |
| Home/Away | Home | Away |
Factors Influencing the Odds
Set a number of factors that can determine the betting lines for this clash in October, including:
- Home Ice Advantage: Since the game is going to be held in Toronto, the odds slightly favor the Leafs.
- Dominating Faceoffs: The fact that Pittsburgh holds a 54.6% faceoff win rate, tops in the league, while Toronto is fourth with 53.5%, could affect puck possession and create more scoring chances.
- Potential to Score: The Leafs’ higher goals per game – 3.63, 2nd in the league – compared to 3.09 for the Penguins, may indicate that the over/under line might skew a little higher.
- Coaching Decisions: It’s pretty apparent that Mike Sullivan of Pittsburgh and Toronto‘s Craig Berube have taken somewhat different approaches as coaches. That said, it has potential implications for in-game adjustments and player usage.
Betting Considerations
The odds will probably be favourable to the Maple Leafs because of the contrast in team performance. The Penguins should have a high face-off percentage and penalty kill – those would narrow the spread.
The over/under line is likely set pretty high because Toronto’s offense is probably going to be set that way. However, the tendency of the Penguins to feature lower-scoring games could factor in, as well as the weaker kill by Toronto.
With that in mind, player prop bets that feature Matthews and Crosby could be worth a look, as both had the best performances of their respective careers last season. The special team’s props may also be enticing, with Toronto possessing an elite-ranked power play and Pittsburgh ranking inside the top 10 on the penalty kill.
Injury Report and Roster Notes
There are no key injuries to note for either team entering the contest. Still, bettors will want to keep an eye out for any late changes to the lineup and confirm the starting goalie for each team.
For Toronto, look at its supporting cast contributions: William Nylander had 98 points last season, while Mitch Marner added another 85. That could be the difference-maker in this hockey game.
This is a highly anticipated matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Penguins, not only on the ice but also in the betting markets. On paper, this would appear to be the Maple Leafs’ game to lose, but the experience of Pittsburgh and its special teams could be just what is needed to spring some surprises. It’s an event that will draw hockey enthusiasts and punters alike.
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